The background to the article was the insane and incomprehensible statement that the Indian Government has made about 'not being the first to use the nukes.'
This absolutely myopic view that only a puny Pakistan can be our enemy is so pathetic.
I wrote a fictional episode of something that could cause a conflagration with China, the intent being to write some fiction and question the very basis of the above statement the Govt of India has made.
Read on.
Not For Use
Over the past year,
The establishment of the SFC, has brought out a slew of Indian Arms or Defence experts coming into the open stating that our ‘No First Use’ policy was flawed. Sadly, these people were not taken into confidence before the stratagems of the SFC were established and published for all sundry to read. However, there is truth in their argument, and that our ‘Use’ policy is in a manner, dictated by the enemy.
Relative peace exists with the Pakistanis. The disgruntled acceptance of the stalemate over J&K, and their ever-dwindling economy keeps
Together, the Pakistanis and the Chinese keep the Indian Army occupied in CI Ops and Indian Army’s Senior Command keeps worrying about the ever-decreasing effort toward war training.
Threat to war is low. Only one Indian Officer in the entire Armed Forces, worries and wonders ‘How many Indians would have to die so as to enable him to defend his nation.’ Lt. Gen. VDS Oberai PVSM, General Officer Commanding, Strategic Forces Command.
As well outlined by Chengappa in his book (Weapons of Peace, Author: Raj Chengappa, Pub. Harper-Collins, 2000) the usage of the atomic devices was completely covered by the scientific establishment. The machinery to fabricate and assemble the weapons, the safeguards, and the testing of the safety mechanisms were all overseen by them. Even the trials using Mirage 2000s was done under their auspicies.
One would safely presume that these scientists are in charge of the weapons and only the Armed Forces to stop or abet them. The poor politicians showed their courage in hostilities to cross International Borders or even the fluctuating Line of Control. There would be every reason to believe that we could strangely have a credible response from a team of men who could be beyond the normal lines of communication during war. This simple fact would allow them that one day to think over a response and deliver it, rather than buckling to some external pressure.
0840Hrs, GMT, Friday 04March 2005, BMEWS Centre,
The BMEWS ‘MIDAS Early Bird’ in Low-Earth orbit over the Indian Ocean picked up a flare and sent the coordinates 26038'N 93044'E, to the nearest switching station of the US BMEWS 21st Space Wing (SW) at Thule AB, Greenland. The Routers processed the coordinates and flashed a 'Possible Missile Launch' Numaligarh, Eastern India, to the office of the 11 Space Warning Squadron (SWS), Schriever AFB, Colorado under the 21st Space Wing at Peterson AFB, Colorado, and an alert to the NORAD Centre, Cheyenne Mountain.
In the following 35 seconds, a pop-up window on the Console of the Duty Officer, 11 SWS showed cause for alarm. The window read:
‘Missile Launch Warning from close proximity to Indian 555 Missile Group, Dimapur-Tezpur Valley Assam, Eastern India. Armament: Agni-III, Capability: 50kt Atomic Device delivery range 1000 Miles. Action: Alert CENTCOM,
Major James Eggers, muttered to himself, ‘Who is
1410Hrs, IST, Numaligarh Oil Refinery,
A massive detonation had just rocked the oil refinery in
Alarm sensors pointed out to the tank that was being drained for inspection and maintenance. That was to be the main problem. Any fuller it would have crossed the detonation limit of 15% and probably a deflagration would have ensued.
The blast overpressure wave that emanated buckled in the shining circular walls containing fuel from surrounding tanks. Mr. Prasun Sen Sharma, the GM of the plant shook his head in amazement as the flash of the fireball crossed his room and had just about enough time to look outside his ‘grand view window’ overlooking almost the entire refinery before the shockwave shattered his window.
‘Hell!’ The only thought that crossed his mind before his body was lifted and flung across the room.
Decapitation of the fire fighting systems and sympathetic detonations would soon raze the dead Mr. Sharmas’ refinery to smouldering debris.
Little was he to know, that this hell would pale in front of what the world would witness before the fortnight was out.
1423Hrs, Indian National Defence Authority Situation Room
Alarm bells rang in the NDASR, somewhere in the foothills of the Himalyas near the Jim Corbett Tiger Sanctuary. Brigadier Ashok Verma, SM, UYSM, was on duty that fateful hour, when the first news of the blast came through.
The dual-role, recently re-named ‘Kalpana,’ military-weather satellite signaled the same IR warning to Vermas’ Monitoring rooms. Fearing the worst, he sent a ‘Eyes Only’ signal to the Office of the Eastern Army Commander (EAC), Lt Gen AK Kulkarni, PVSM, about a possible catastrophic event, and asked him make preparations to get to his to get to his Command Center, while the situation was being evaluated.
News channels covering the blast at 1545Hrs reported spreading of fires and a possible destruction of the entire refinery. Verma watching the situation unfold from the TVs and his hotline called the NDA Crisis Team who in turn alerted the Defence Chiefs, the CCS, the Secretary of MoH, and the Secretary of the MEA.
While the RAW and the Intelligence Bureau Directors were alerted, almost immediately the entire security structure got off its inertia and some concrete report of the blast being sanctioned by the ULFA was received. Even before the NDA and CCS meeting was scheduled, the Army Chief ordered his Staff Officers to issue a general alert to the Eastern Command, and placed the Siliguri-based XXVII Corps on a ‘Formal Alert’
Col. N Ramakishnan, CO 7/13GR, ’The Primes,’ the batallion with the duty of the Div Alert Bn was on the phone with his Brigade Commander, 31(I) Infantry Brigade, and GOC, 195 Mountain Div under the XXVII Corps, and ordered his troops ‘Mobilisation’ status.
No First Use, that itself is the primary flaw in the system we have cared to show the world. Maybe it is just a reflection of the government not being able to get enough guidance or be able to bring itself to think of a nuclear assault on a neighbour.
The stated decision to use the nuclear weaponry ‘Second’ is so Pakistan-centric, that it has clearly ignored a possibility of use on
1635Hrs, Same Day
Local
Dusk, 1735Hrs, Same Day
The lead MiG 21 from 212 Squadron ‘The Proud Claws,’ Tezpur, struck a convoy 13 Km short of the Chinese border, due
How can one presume this while making statements about the use of one of our ‘arms.’ If there is any hostility with the Chinese, then the Chinese stand to do all the damage they want to, given our inaccessible border region in the NE. The ill-developed border road setup, and the lack of infrastructure, leaves one staring at another land-grab in the face.
Any number of presumptions are available to us. Suppose the simplest of border skirmishes escalates or that an incident beyond current threat perception occurs, and there is a war. So, if we stand to loose Ladakh and/or Arunachal, or a decimation of the Corps that sits in the West Bengal/Assam nook, then we will not use the weapon as the Pakistanis would if the North-South corridors along the
Dusk to Dawn, 04-05 Saturday, March 2005
Chaos reigned over the refinery, and aerial assessment with the help of Jaguar and MiG 25 recce flights showed extensive fires all over the refinery complex and to the money counters, it already meant a loss of over Rs. 5000 Crores, in infrastructure and revenue, not to mention the importing of oil products to cover the shortage.
The Crisis Team of the NDA and CCS met around 0115Hrs. The PM’s influence on the gathering was that there was to be a reaction for sure. With precious little to go on, the PM asked the IAF Chief, Air Chief Marshal ABV Palkhivala to continue on the available information about the fleeing militants, and the strike by the MiG 21 the earlier evening. He left it to the Armed Forces Chiefs to give him the plan just before the full NDA and CCS meet later that day.
It was decided that Palkhivala was to task the Squadrons at KKD to be ready for action at first light.
The Prime Minister’s Office convened the meeting of the NDA and the CCS at just a little past 0400Hrs, so that they would have some face saving to do when the nation would awake to reports of the carnage in
The quantum of movement indicated a ever large conspiracy and a very well thought of plan, that the movement was to safeguard the higher echelons of the terrorists while the lower rungs took the brunt of the combing Ops that the Indian forces would predictably carry out in the following weeks.
On being given to realise the possible escape of the leaders of the groups, all that the PM said was “Stupid people.”
A Single MiG 25R took off from KKD, with its twin afterburning Tumansky R-15s, no weapons payload, save the seven cameras with their film cassettes onboard. Wing Commander Srivastava leveled of at over 82,000 ft. At that altitude, escorts wouldn’t have been able to keep up, nor stay with him for the duration of his flight. His flight path took him over Paro and leveled off about where the IB between
His cameras piercing the early morning mists, captured over 175 Sq.Km at the enhanced zoom and focus with a click. His return leg turned him back to KKD over the Primes running around their hurried defences. At that height, they didn’t even know if he was there.
Photo Recce Assessment Teams took just under 26 minutes to pinpoint the militants’ tents, and haphazard arrangements about 3Km into Chinese territory to stay clear of the Chinese Army Camp about 15Km further, at Pagri. They had just past the shiny tin-roof of the PLA Border Guards post, bang on the border.
Smoke wisps and a charred border outpost a few hundred yards east of the Chinese post was all that remained of the 3rd Platoon, Bravo Company, 28 Raj Rif.
Results were being flashed to the NDA while the same were being dialed into the Briefing Room of the MiG 27s of 352Wing at KKD.
0630Hrs, Sikkim-China Border
As luck would have it the ‘Primes’ were in the area from where any possible crossing could take place between Yadong and
The ‘Primes’ having moved through the evening and night, were on station at the border and were spreading out across the only passable route into
0650Hrs, KKD Airforce Station
The lead aircraft, a MiG 27ML, with Squadron Leader SP ‘Spidey’ Bharadwaj, was already rolling off its blocks while the MiG 29S pilots in escort rolled out of their hangars. Everyone was sweating in their flight suits, the cool morning air nor the pressurised cockpits made any difference. Flight suits were damp with perspiration, heartbeats were doing the aerobic routine and the bitter taste of acid reflux due to fear-anxiety complex, flooded the mouths of the 6 ‘27 and 4 ’29 pilots.
Haven’t you made a public statement about your nuclear weapons use? Would that be a nice time to retract the policy and retrain the SFC for a first-use scenario? And then begin a brain-storming over what Chinese target would get them to stop? And the whole thought process of how to carry out the whole exchange and second-strike capability.
For a leadership without a backbone, the NFU is the safest way out. With
0655Hrs, New Delhi
The
Explaining his urgency and desperation in the matter, the Minister explained that he had a situation and there had to be some results to show to the Indian population.
The Chinese Minister was asking for proof that the militants in Chinese territory were the ones that perpetrated the attack on the Refinery. Knowing fully well, that they couldn’t have been the same people, simply because of the distance, Sharma replied, “No, Sir they are not, but they all belong to the same team, and I need some cooperation, at this hour.”
“I will get back to you within the hour,” was the reply before the phone went dead.
‘Romeo Team’ cleared the airbase perimeter even before the conversation ended.
0700Hrs, New Delhi
Air Chief Marshal ABV Palkhivala waited with bated breath, his pilots were going to be in action over enemy territory for the first time, literally for the first time since, he as a Wing Commander with 7 Squadron, had flown his Mirage 2000 over Male as escort for the Il 76s in the ‘80’s.
Brig. Verma informed Palkhivala “Flight Control/ ATC, KKD via the NDASR.” The speakers crackled to life with the voice of the FC/ATC, KKD relaying flight details. The august gathering in
“Yeh kya majaak hai?” someone muttered.
“Chup kar.” The PMs voice rasped.
Silence was worse than blood, sweat, or tears, thought Palkhivala as he and Oberoi crossed eyes for a fleeting second. They knew each other long enough from their NCC days at FergussonCollege, to understand what had just transpired.
The Prime Minister spoke, weighing each word carefully.
“When is that damn fire going to get put out?”
“Kulkarni, Where is 555? Ensure their safety.”
“How many troops died in the militant crossing? Their deaths will be avenged first. Destroy them.”
Not expecting an answer to the first two and referring to the surprise attack on the rear of the HQ Bravo Company, 28 Raj
“Call the Resort and wake up the President, Please.”
Order or request ?… the PM’s Private Secretary wondered as he just nodded at the Signals Officer, a full Colonel, manning the Secure Government Hotline to connect to the Rashtrapati Bhavan.
For those who to study nuclear exchange scenarios, you are facing a situation that could snowball into one.
In all probability, give the current thought process and mindset, the SFC will have all the force it can ever deploy, with a lop-sided command structure to enforce a missing strategy.
Our nation has been versatile in facing adversaries, every time after our adversaries have turned hostile, and the common man should literally gun for a change in this mentality.
0727Hrs, Bhutan-China Border
Spidey and his flight flew about 100 ft over the burning remains of the Raj Rif camp, much to the surprise of the troops who were engaged in Medevac Ops there. The roar of the ten aircraft, flying nape of the earth to avoid early detection from enemy AD radar, was almost like a soothing balm to the wounds of the soldiers and a helping hand heaven-ward to the dead.
The militants were hit with a complete surprise, and having no AD weapons to fight back, could do little other than run a few steps before being blown to bits. Men, women, their ammunition, belongings, and vehicles were destroyed by the two waves of ‘27s. Having expended their deadly cargo of bombs, they turned around to get a few pictures for the BDA gang on Base. Sqn Ldr ‘Dicky’ Dixit of the escorting ‘29s, and his flight immediately flew near vertical and stationed themselves at 31,000ft. to cover the retreating bombers.
Col Sethi, CO 28 Raj Rif, saw the smoke and the high flying MiGs and thanked God for someone who had the courage to fight back from the offices higher than his.
0758Hrs, 256 Signal Company, HQ XXVII Corps, Siliguri
“You stabbed us, you promised us the Indians wouldn’t attack us on your soil, all our women are dead, because of you.
The Communists in
Hopefully you shall not let my men crossing past Yadong suffer the same fate. Protect them till they pass…”
The OIC, Major K Sawant, of 256 Signal Company, Signals Detachment, HQ XXVII Corps, stared at his AlcatelKQ-R32AB scanner, and blandly instructed his junior to make copies for encryption.
He picked up the phone to call the Col. Singhal, Staff Officer, Operations, XXVII Corps.
The Crisis had just begun.
We are not a progressing nation just to be able to be large enough to absorb an attack on our seat of government, or that continuing infiltration and terrorism be handled in the manner it is being done today, because we are not paying a heavy price mentally, physically or economically.
*****
From the author:
There was a small point of conflict between the appraisers of this writeup that the layouts of refinery storage tank farms would not permit such a starting scenario. However, please understand that there is the principle of FAE’s taken into account here.
Storage tanks at refineries are sometimes over 40-50Lakh litres in capacity. The key here is that it was written that the tank was between the 6-15% capacity, resulting in a ‘detonation’ versus the ‘deflagration’ that would happen if a fuller tank was ‘hit.’
A detonation of this magnitude, would cause a supersonic overpressure wave that could carry far enough to encompass the area of the refinery, at worst and at best the surrounding storage tanks. The debris of the metal of the tank walls would carry further than the overpressure wave at the least.
This is the theory on which the attack on the refinery is based. You wouldn’t presume that we would put the actual figures in public, would you?
The effect and the following damage appreciation is correct, and this is not an attack on either full, half-full or empty fuel tanks in some other nation. This is a calculated attack.
Intelligence is everyones’ birthright.
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