Tuesday, June 21, 2011

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--
Texas A&M, Class of '94

http://therealslimkd.blogspot.com/

"For all your days prepare,
And meet them ever alike:
When you are the anvil, bear-
When you are the hammer, Strike."
Preparedness, an Epigram by Edwin Markham (1852-1940)

Monday, June 20, 2011

My Fathers Birthday

Had my father been alive, yesterday would have been his 80th birthday and Fathers Day celebrations at one go. However, my father has moved on.

In his memory, today we gave away notebooks to emphasize his importance of education- to 625 students in a government run residential school for tribal children.

Attached are a few photographs of the school and its surroundings and apart from the small distribution ceremony, the images of Principal and Mrs Mahala are of significance for retiring after serving the school for 35 years.

Cleanliness, hygiene and studies are the most important things taught here and we wish well for the students and the staff.

Regards,
The Desais




--
Texas A&M, Class of '94

"For all your days prepare,
And meet them ever alike:
When you are the anvil, bear-
When you are the hammer, Strike."
Preparedness, an Epigram by Edwin Markham (1852-1940)

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Mumbai 2011- A different point of view

We did a heritage walk around Hutatma Chowk and the Taj and took a few pictures.

We went for a heritage walk, early on a sunday morning- and we saw the many faces that make my city the city that it is... where the hardworking barbers were toiling at 0630, the hardest working sleep the sleep of the honest at 0900, where we rebuild and come stronger after terrorists visit, where foreign and Indian companies vie to maintain our heritage buildings, while some of us keep our gardens clean while others let structures collapse, signboards serving tourists our 'desi cool drink' and where shamelessly government-owned companies take credit for supplying free gas to a light up a national monument.


http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10150224640793886.336788.574983885&l=0320d926fb


--
Texas A&M, Class of '94

"For all your days prepare,
And meet them ever alike:
When you are the anvil, bear-
When you are the hammer, Strike."
Preparedness, an Epigram by Edwin Markham (1852-1940)

Monday, June 6, 2011

Length of trousers

Such basics are a must-to-know these days. The 'full break' is a requirement for both ladies as well as gents trousers.

I am just hoping that all of you will try and get to the proper length, its just so nice.

For those needing a faster fix, see images below.

Captions, from upper left, clockwise:
Sleeve Length-The sleeve length in the illustration looks spot on to me
No Break- poor form
Full Break- required
Regular Break- in the minimum this much IS required.




Pant bottoms should cover the shoe so that you socks do not show when you walk. The trousers should slant about 1/4" towards the read to touch the top of the sole.

If you don't cuff your pants have the tailor slant the bottoms so that the hem is lower at the back to the top of the shoe heel. Tailors call this a "fishtail".


Visit a good trouser company website like http://www.zanella.com/ and see what you like

AND finally:
Change your tailor if he doesn't listen.


KD

--
Texas A&M, Class of '94

"For all your days prepare,
And meet them ever alike:
When you are the anvil, bear-
When you are the hammer, Strike."
Preparedness, an Epigram by Edwin Markham (1852-1940)

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Tales from 2008- No First Use

The background to the article was the insane and incomprehensible statement that the Indian Government has made about 'not being the first to use the nukes.'

This absolutely myopic view that only a puny Pakistan can be our enemy is so pathetic.


I wrote a fictional episode of something that could cause a conflagration with China, the intent being to write some fiction and question the very basis of the above statement the Govt of India has made.

Read on.




Not For Use

Over the past year, Pakistan stole the public march over India in declaring their Nuclear Forces Command and Control System. With Indias’ stated ‘No First Use’ policy, what is going to happen? What command and strategy would you require if your intent is to retaliate? All you need is ten ready nuclear devices and the means to deliver them. If One falls then Ten go. Why the need for such elaborate ‘Strategic Forces Command’?

The establishment of the SFC, has brought out a slew of Indian Arms or Defence experts coming into the open stating that our ‘No First Use’ policy was flawed. Sadly, these people were not taken into confidence before the stratagems of the SFC were established and published for all sundry to read. However, there is truth in their argument, and that our ‘Use’ policy is in a manner, dictated by the enemy.

India, The State of the Nation, circa 2005

India’s new Prime Minister has taken charge after the November 2004 elections. He rides a wave of majority that granted by the electorate on his simple tough language and a no-nonsense approach. The promise of action and low-tolerance appealed to the common man and got SK Bhatnagar elected with a better than 50% margin.

Relative peace exists with the Pakistanis. The disgruntled acceptance of the stalemate over J&K, and their ever-dwindling economy keeps India playing the game, as it hurts them ten times more than it hurts us. In the North East, unsettled ULFA demands, the Kamtipura Movement and other Maoist groups out of Nepal keep formenting trouble in the North-East.

Together, the Pakistanis and the Chinese keep the Indian Army occupied in CI Ops and Indian Army’s Senior Command keeps worrying about the ever-decreasing effort toward war training.

Threat to war is low. Only one Indian Officer in the entire Armed Forces, worries and wonders ‘How many Indians would have to die so as to enable him to defend his nation.’ Lt. Gen. VDS Oberai PVSM, General Officer Commanding, Strategic Forces Command.

As well outlined by Chengappa in his book (Weapons of Peace, Author: Raj Chengappa, Pub. Harper-Collins, 2000) the usage of the atomic devices was completely covered by the scientific establishment. The machinery to fabricate and assemble the weapons, the safeguards, and the testing of the safety mechanisms were all overseen by them. Even the trials using Mirage 2000s was done under their auspicies.

One would safely presume that these scientists are in charge of the weapons and only the Armed Forces to stop or abet them. The poor politicians showed their courage in hostilities to cross International Borders or even the fluctuating Line of Control. There would be every reason to believe that we could strangely have a credible response from a team of men who could be beyond the normal lines of communication during war. This simple fact would allow them that one day to think over a response and deliver it, rather than buckling to some external pressure.

0840Hrs, GMT, Friday 04March 2005, BMEWS Centre, Thule AB, Greenland

The BMEWS ‘MIDAS Early Bird’ in Low-Earth orbit over the Indian Ocean picked up a flare and sent the coordinates 26038'N 93044'E, to the nearest switching station of the US BMEWS 21st Space Wing (SW) at Thule AB, Greenland. The Routers processed the coordinates and flashed a 'Possible Missile Launch' Numaligarh, Eastern India, to the office of the 11 Space Warning Squadron (SWS), Schriever AFB, Colorado under the 21st Space Wing at Peterson AFB, Colorado, and an alert to the NORAD Centre, Cheyenne Mountain.

In the following 35 seconds, a pop-up window on the Console of the Duty Officer, 11 SWS showed cause for alarm. The window read:

‘Missile Launch Warning from close proximity to Indian 555 Missile Group, Dimapur-Tezpur Valley Assam, Eastern India. Armament: Agni-III, Capability: 50kt Atomic Device delivery range 1000 Miles. Action: Alert CENTCOM, Tampa, Florida, and Flash ‘Possible Ballistic Missile Launch Warning: Launch Area: Eastern India, Target: Unknown’ to CENTCOM Detachment, Doha.’

Major James Eggers, muttered to himself, ‘Who is India nuking now?’ in surprise.

1410Hrs, IST, Numaligarh Oil Refinery, Assam, Friday 04 March 2005

A massive detonation had just rocked the oil refinery in Numaligarh, Assam. Storage Tank 17A blew up, containing about 980KL aviation fuel.

Alarm sensors pointed out to the tank that was being drained for inspection and maintenance. That was to be the main problem. Any fuller it would have crossed the detonation limit of 15% and probably a deflagration would have ensued.

The blast overpressure wave that emanated buckled in the shining circular walls containing fuel from surrounding tanks. Mr. Prasun Sen Sharma, the GM of the plant shook his head in amazement as the flash of the fireball crossed his room and had just about enough time to look outside his ‘grand view window’ overlooking almost the entire refinery before the shockwave shattered his window.

‘Hell!’ The only thought that crossed his mind before his body was lifted and flung across the room.

Decapitation of the fire fighting systems and sympathetic detonations would soon raze the dead Mr. Sharmas’ refinery to smouldering debris.

Little was he to know, that this hell would pale in front of what the world would witness before the fortnight was out.

1423Hrs, Indian National Defence Authority Situation Room

Alarm bells rang in the NDASR, somewhere in the foothills of the Himalyas near the Jim Corbett Tiger Sanctuary. Brigadier Ashok Verma, SM, UYSM, was on duty that fateful hour, when the first news of the blast came through.

The dual-role, recently re-named ‘Kalpana,’ military-weather satellite signaled the same IR warning to Vermas’ Monitoring rooms. Fearing the worst, he sent a ‘Eyes Only’ signal to the Office of the Eastern Army Commander (EAC), Lt Gen AK Kulkarni, PVSM, about a possible catastrophic event, and asked him make preparations to get to his to get to his Command Center, while the situation was being evaluated.

News channels covering the blast at 1545Hrs reported spreading of fires and a possible destruction of the entire refinery. Verma watching the situation unfold from the TVs and his hotline called the NDA Crisis Team who in turn alerted the Defence Chiefs, the CCS, the Secretary of MoH, and the Secretary of the MEA.

While the RAW and the Intelligence Bureau Directors were alerted, almost immediately the entire security structure got off its inertia and some concrete report of the blast being sanctioned by the ULFA was received. Even before the NDA and CCS meeting was scheduled, the Army Chief ordered his Staff Officers to issue a general alert to the Eastern Command, and placed the Siliguri-based XXVII Corps on a ‘Formal Alert’

Col. N Ramakishnan, CO 7/13GR, ’The Primes,’ the batallion with the duty of the Div Alert Bn was on the phone with his Brigade Commander, 31(I) Infantry Brigade, and GOC, 195 Mountain Div under the XXVII Corps, and ordered his troops ‘Mobilisation’ status.

No First Use, that itself is the primary flaw in the system we have cared to show the world. Maybe it is just a reflection of the government not being able to get enough guidance or be able to bring itself to think of a nuclear assault on a neighbour.

The stated decision to use the nuclear weaponry ‘Second’ is so Pakistan-centric, that it has clearly ignored a possibility of use on China. Have the mandarins of the Defence Ministry and the Ministry of External Affairs negated China forever from our nations Defence equations?

1635Hrs, Same Day

Local Assam Police, and IB reports of movements of suspected ULFA militants had started from western Bhutan, mainly from the scenic valley in which surrounded the town of Paro. The route being taken was westward toward the China border. Physical terrain and current deployment status meant that there was precious little to do before they reached the Chinese border. The IAF was alerted and MiGs from the Tezpur AFB were readied to attack the feeling columns of militants. Additional airforce at Kalaikunda (KKD), Dimapur, Siliguri, amongst other bases, were alerted. IMTRAT Commander, Thimpu, was asked to place his troops on an awareness level, and HQ 31(I) Infantry Brigade, outside of Gangtok, was placed on full alert.

Dusk, 1735Hrs, Same Day

The lead MiG 21 from 212 Squadron ‘The Proud Claws,’ Tezpur, struck a convoy 13 Km short of the Chinese border, due North west of Paro. BDA estimated about ten trucks damaged, just as darkness enveloped eastern India.

How can one presume this while making statements about the use of one of our ‘arms.’ If there is any hostility with the Chinese, then the Chinese stand to do all the damage they want to, given our inaccessible border region in the NE. The ill-developed border road setup, and the lack of infrastructure, leaves one staring at another land-grab in the face.

Any number of presumptions are available to us. Suppose the simplest of border skirmishes escalates or that an incident beyond current threat perception occurs, and there is a war. So, if we stand to loose Ladakh and/or Arunachal, or a decimation of the Corps that sits in the West Bengal/Assam nook, then we will not use the weapon as the Pakistanis would if the North-South corridors along the Indus were threatened?

Dusk to Dawn, 04-05 Saturday, March 2005

Chaos reigned over the refinery, and aerial assessment with the help of Jaguar and MiG 25 recce flights showed extensive fires all over the refinery complex and to the money counters, it already meant a loss of over Rs. 5000 Crores, in infrastructure and revenue, not to mention the importing of oil products to cover the shortage.

The Crisis Team of the NDA and CCS met around 0115Hrs. The PM’s influence on the gathering was that there was to be a reaction for sure. With precious little to go on, the PM asked the IAF Chief, Air Chief Marshal ABV Palkhivala to continue on the available information about the fleeing militants, and the strike by the MiG 21 the earlier evening. He left it to the Armed Forces Chiefs to give him the plan just before the full NDA and CCS meet later that day.

It was decided that Palkhivala was to task the Squadrons at KKD to be ready for action at first light.

The Prime Minister’s Office convened the meeting of the NDA and the CCS at just a little past 0400Hrs, so that they would have some face saving to do when the nation would awake to reports of the carnage in Assam. They were informed about the knowledge of the fleeing militants and their crossing over into the Chinese territory from Bhutan. Reports from Tibetan informers indicated a larger horde of militants having passed Yadong, about to cross over the Sikkim border, probably enroute to safer havens in Nepal.

The quantum of movement indicated a ever large conspiracy and a very well thought of plan, that the movement was to safeguard the higher echelons of the terrorists while the lower rungs took the brunt of the combing Ops that the Indian forces would predictably carry out in the following weeks.

On being given to realise the possible escape of the leaders of the groups, all that the PM said was “Stupid people.”

Sunrise, 0510Hrs, 05 March 2005

A Single MiG 25R took off from KKD, with its twin afterburning Tumansky R-15s, no weapons payload, save the seven cameras with their film cassettes onboard. Wing Commander Srivastava leveled of at over 82,000 ft. At that altitude, escorts wouldn’t have been able to keep up, nor stay with him for the duration of his flight. His flight path took him over Paro and leveled off about where the IB between Bhutan and China stood. Chinese AD radars picked him up while he was still climbing, but did nothing, as they knew that they didn’t have anything with which they could even think of harming him in that time frame.

His cameras piercing the early morning mists, captured over 175 Sq.Km at the enhanced zoom and focus with a click. His return leg turned him back to KKD over the Primes running around their hurried defences. At that height, they didn’t even know if he was there.

Photo Recce Assessment Teams took just under 26 minutes to pinpoint the militants’ tents, and haphazard arrangements about 3Km into Chinese territory to stay clear of the Chinese Army Camp about 15Km further, at Pagri. They had just past the shiny tin-roof of the PLA Border Guards post, bang on the border.

Smoke wisps and a charred border outpost a few hundred yards east of the Chinese post was all that remained of the 3rd Platoon, Bravo Company, 28 Raj Rif.

Results were being flashed to the NDA while the same were being dialed into the Briefing Room of the MiG 27s of 352Wing at KKD.

0630Hrs, Sikkim-China Border

As luck would have it the ‘Primes’ were in the area from where any possible crossing could take place between Yadong and Sikkim into Nepal.

The ‘Primes’ having moved through the evening and night, were on station at the border and were spreading out across the only passable route into Sikkim. They flashed a ‘K minus 1’ to HQ 195 Mtn Div just as the MiG flew over them at over Mach3.

0650Hrs, KKD Airforce Station

The lead aircraft, a MiG 27ML, with Squadron Leader SP ‘Spidey’ Bharadwaj, was already rolling off its blocks while the MiG 29S pilots in escort rolled out of their hangars. Everyone was sweating in their flight suits, the cool morning air nor the pressurised cockpits made any difference. Flight suits were damp with perspiration, heartbeats were doing the aerobic routine and the bitter taste of acid reflux due to fear-anxiety complex, flooded the mouths of the 6 ‘27 and 4 ’29 pilots.

Haven’t you made a public statement about your nuclear weapons use? Would that be a nice time to retract the policy and retrain the SFC for a first-use scenario? And then begin a brain-storming over what Chinese target would get them to stop? And the whole thought process of how to carry out the whole exchange and second-strike capability.

For a leadership without a backbone, the NFU is the safest way out. With Pakistan, we will use second because we don’t know when to use it first. With China, if we use one, (to paraphrase our Defence Minister, “there will be no India left.”)

0655Hrs, New Delhi

The India Minister for External Affairs, KN Sharma, was on the phone with his Chinese counterpart, explaining the militant attack on the refinery and the escaping militants hiding on Chinese soil.

Explaining his urgency and desperation in the matter, the Minister explained that he had a situation and there had to be some results to show to the Indian population.

The Chinese Minister was asking for proof that the militants in Chinese territory were the ones that perpetrated the attack on the Refinery. Knowing fully well, that they couldn’t have been the same people, simply because of the distance, Sharma replied, “No, Sir they are not, but they all belong to the same team, and I need some cooperation, at this hour.”

“I will get back to you within the hour,” was the reply before the phone went dead.

‘Romeo Team’ cleared the airbase perimeter even before the conversation ended.

0700Hrs, New Delhi

Air Chief Marshal ABV Palkhivala waited with bated breath, his pilots were going to be in action over enemy territory for the first time, literally for the first time since, he as a Wing Commander with 7 Squadron, had flown his Mirage 2000 over Male as escort for the Il 76s in the ‘80’s.

Brig. Verma informed Palkhivala “Flight Control/ ATC, KKD via the NDASR.” The speakers crackled to life with the voice of the FC/ATC, KKD relaying flight details. The august gathering in New Delhi sat back, stunned, before the shock and fear set in and wondered if their debate for over three and a half hours had any meaning.

“Yeh kya majaak hai?” someone muttered.

“Chup kar.” The PMs voice rasped.

Silence was worse than blood, sweat, or tears, thought Palkhivala as he and Oberoi crossed eyes for a fleeting second. They knew each other long enough from their NCC days at FergussonCollege, to understand what had just transpired.

The Prime Minister spoke, weighing each word carefully.

“When is that damn fire going to get put out?”

“Kulkarni, Where is 555? Ensure their safety.”

“How many troops died in the militant crossing? Their deaths will be avenged first. Destroy them.”

Not expecting an answer to the first two and referring to the surprise attack on the rear of the HQ Bravo Company, 28 Raj Rif by the fleeing militants, the PM stood by the orders given to the Air Chief, and waited to hear of the attack before getting ready to speak to the Chinese Premier.

“Call the Resort and wake up the President, Please.”

Order or request ?… the PM’s Private Secretary wondered as he just nodded at the Signals Officer, a full Colonel, manning the Secure Government Hotline to connect to the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

For those who to study nuclear exchange scenarios, you are facing a situation that could snowball into one.

In all probability, give the current thought process and mindset, the SFC will have all the force it can ever deploy, with a lop-sided command structure to enforce a missing strategy.

Our nation has been versatile in facing adversaries, every time after our adversaries have turned hostile, and the common man should literally gun for a change in this mentality.

0727Hrs, Bhutan-China Border

Spidey and his flight flew about 100 ft over the burning remains of the Raj Rif camp, much to the surprise of the troops who were engaged in Medevac Ops there. The roar of the ten aircraft, flying nape of the earth to avoid early detection from enemy AD radar, was almost like a soothing balm to the wounds of the soldiers and a helping hand heaven-ward to the dead.

The militants were hit with a complete surprise, and having no AD weapons to fight back, could do little other than run a few steps before being blown to bits. Men, women, their ammunition, belongings, and vehicles were destroyed by the two waves of ‘27s. Having expended their deadly cargo of bombs, they turned around to get a few pictures for the BDA gang on Base. Sqn Ldr ‘Dicky’ Dixit of the escorting ‘29s, and his flight immediately flew near vertical and stationed themselves at 31,000ft. to cover the retreating bombers.

Col Sethi, CO 28 Raj Rif, saw the smoke and the high flying MiGs and thanked God for someone who had the courage to fight back from the offices higher than his.

0758Hrs, 256 Signal Company, HQ XXVII Corps, Siliguri

“You stabbed us, you promised us the Indians wouldn’t attack us on your soil, all our women are dead, because of you.

The Communists in Nepal will protect us far better than you or your masters in Beijing ever could.

Hopefully you shall not let my men crossing past Yadong suffer the same fate. Protect them till they pass…”

The OIC, Major K Sawant, of 256 Signal Company, Signals Detachment, HQ XXVII Corps, stared at his AlcatelKQ-R32AB scanner, and blandly instructed his junior to make copies for encryption.

He picked up the phone to call the Col. Singhal, Staff Officer, Operations, XXVII Corps.

The Crisis had just begun.

We are not a progressing nation just to be able to be large enough to absorb an attack on our seat of government, or that continuing infiltration and terrorism be handled in the manner it is being done today, because we are not paying a heavy price mentally, physically or economically.

*****
From the author:

There was a small point of conflict between the appraisers of this writeup that the layouts of refinery storage tank farms would not permit such a starting scenario. However, please understand that there is the principle of FAE’s taken into account here.

Storage tanks at refineries are sometimes over 40-50Lakh litres in capacity. The key here is that it was written that the tank was between the 6-15% capacity, resulting in a ‘detonation’ versus the ‘deflagration’ that would happen if a fuller tank was ‘hit.’

A detonation of this magnitude, would cause a supersonic overpressure wave that could carry far enough to encompass the area of the refinery, at worst and at best the surrounding storage tanks. The debris of the metal of the tank walls would carry further than the overpressure wave at the least.

This is the theory on which the attack on the refinery is based. You wouldn’t presume that we would put the actual figures in public, would you?

The effect and the following damage appreciation is correct, and this is not an attack on either full, half-full or empty fuel tanks in some other nation. This is a calculated attack.

And we think that those who concentrated on the nitty-gritty of the attack forgot that if China attacked, would we risk losing the north east or would we use the nukes?

Intelligence is everyones’ birthright.

**************

Why there wouldnt have been a war during Op Parakram

Why there would have been no war

India, Jan 2003

Indian media has been presenting articles and feature presentations on the possible hostilities and the manner in which they could/would have been presented.

Firstly, it is amazing to see the Army’s position laid bare like this, post-facto the deployment. The articles are right in their presumption/fact, that we were closer to war than we had ever been on the past three decades. However, one would beg to present another point of view. 2002 was going to see a war that never was.

For a person interested in our military posturing, you have to look back into our past, not too distant at that.

Kargil, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern India, 1999

Kargil, when our borders had been encroached upon and international opinion was either on our side or silent, but definitely not on their side, our politicians showed their real mettle. Large-scale deployments and an all out war scenario existed on the frontline, albeit over just 170-200Km long Dras-Batalik sectors.

You would be surprised to see how many times the Goverment, in press and private, insisted that the LoC not be crossed, not be infringed upon, that everyone from soldiers to pilots participating in that offensive had to put their own lives and machinery in danger to attack from what was often not the best angle for approach or attack. The enemy’s use of reverse slopes to direct fire, and the therefore the difficulty for our artillery or airforce eliminate the nuisance caused. Manpower was lost due to this fact, and that is a fact. A few lives, maybe even ten or just a hundred would have been saved had we been allowed to cut across, and seal their entry and exit routes, and scale up their relatively undefended maintenance routes.

Given our mobilisation there, and the speed at that it was effected, the chances of the Pakistani Army opposing us in strength was bleak. De-inducted troops from Siachen Glacier, movement of troops from counter-insurgency operations, additional Units from nearby Corps came around almost within weeks to the area of conflict.

The Pakistani Army did deploy its forces to a higher level. There was movement of Brigade HQs and the Mountain Div HQ up one level. Portions of 19 Inf Div (Pakistan), and the forward movement of an Infantry Brigade in the region was noticed. The Skardu AF Base was activated with the deployment of F-16s and a Wing from Chaklala, and movement of Crotale SAM regiments was seen in the Chaklala/ Skardu area.

As much as this sounds, this much movement on that side indicated a possibility that India would escalate, and the Pakistani PM already on tenterhooks because of the Indian escalation, gave orders to move defensively, that not much territory be lost on the rebound. The movement gave the Indian Army no reason to worry, as we had moved over two divisions into the region, and the Pakistani reinforcements were not capable of mounting anything significant on our side of the LoC. Besides there was almost the entire IAF north of Gwalior on operational readiness to tackle the minor air support that Skardu could give their own troops.

Given that enemy return routes were not blocked in most of the places, it enabled the Pakistani intruders to retreat into the safe haven of 'across the LoC' when persistent Indian artillery and infantry assaults made their positions untenable.

Due to this absolutely stupid persistence, we lost a golden chance to get PoWs/ inflict severe casualties on the persons holding our posts.

The Operation was a success in the sense that our posts were recovered and the 'sanctity' of the LoC was restored. It should be taken with a pinch salt, that the border there is called the LoC because of the fact that there is no sanctity to it.

The roots of 'No War in 2002' lie in this above story.

A goverment that had no guts to even scratch the LoC, when we had every right to do so, when our land was taken by the enemy, where would they have the courage to avenge just a 'botched' attempt at blowing up the Parliament building. It is indeed ironical that the very seat of power that couldn’t be ruthless in defending its own territory bore the brunt of its own 'paranoid-defensive-strategy.'

India, December 2001 - Jan 2002

Either without taking the Army into confidence or by putting the mouth before the trigger, the statements and posturing politically led the Army to believe that it was finally headed to conflict.

The gung-ho political leadership, of which everyone thought he was a part of the war committee, goaded on the Army, and the word ‘Deployment’ probably meant more than anything else. Given their exuberance, that they did not want to appear ‘inactive, defensive or cowardly,’ everyone shouted about the ‘completion of deployment’ as if it were their new election motto.

Beyond a certain level of mobilisation, the army simply has too many eggs in one basket. A 100% recall itself means 30% more troops due to leave cancellation. Forward mobilisation of Units belonging to the Strike Corps, and the movement of sub-Corps formations from the East puts a lot of stress on Army Commanders and their immediate Corps Commanders.

The danger of a pre-emptive strike from Pakistan puts entire thought out strategies to risk, and failure of strategies at that level could not mean just court-martials but catastrophic failure of our nations much vaunted prowess and numerical superiority.

Desperate to accumulate brownie points with the masses of our nation, the entire leadership waited like expectant fathers to hear from the Army DGMO and COAS that the deployment is ‘Complete.’ Little knowing, or fully knowing, that reaching this defense condition meant certain manouvres to just ensure that formations would not get caught napping if Pakistan pre-empted us by even a single night in declaring hostilities.

Pakistan, Jan- June 2002

On the other side of the border, two Pakistani Infantry Divisions remained on the Pak Afghan border through out the escalation of the border situation on this side. Such foolishness cannot even be granted to ones own friends, leave alone your enemy. Parts of the Pakistani attack to come from their XI Corps weren’t just there. Presumably the Pakistanis had inside information that India would not attack.

This surety came from the United States, who desperately needed the Pak Border with Afghanistan be sealed till such time that their troops were in control of the ground situation. Given that the Pakistanis had no offensive in place to counter the Indian Strike Corps, meant that Indian Army objectives would be easier to get, making Pakistans posture almost hopelessly defensive. That is a posture they can least afford to have given that the end result could be three nations out of one.

To remind Indians of the Pakistani capability to adapt, the famous ‘Battle of Longewala,’ won as that may have been by the Indians, but a panicked Indian Army Command ordered a halt to the Strike Corps operating North of Longewala, when the result of that Strike Corps success would have been the formation of Sind and Punjab as countries. Pakistani success at Longewala would have had other repercussions, but that’s not what happened.

The only thing that ensured Pakistani safety, in this 2002, was the threat and knowledge of the use of nuclear weapons on advancing Indian troops, Corps HQs, or lastly civilian targets, between 9th -11th days of the conflict.

The movement of the Ambala-based II Corps, sparked off a chain reaction from the enemy ground surveillance and intelligence. Within what seems a matter or hours, the Pakistanis got the US on the run. At a local level, presumably, even the Pakistanis knew what the Corps Commander was upto as there was precious little he could do otherwise. However, they roped in the already hyper US into pulling out all stops and moving in the KH12 satellites into the region from their pressing Afghanistan duties, to get intel on the Indian movements.

The Pakistanis called the shots by reminding the US about their requirements on the Pak western front, and the nuclear scenario. The Americans in their true colours called everyone who mattered in the Indian leadership and warned, cajoled, threatened India into backing off.

New Delhi, June 2002

The reaction of the Indian government was almost ridiculous. The leadership acted as if the entire armed forces deployment was a NCC exercise, and denied any intent to open or start hostilities. When shown proof of the movement of the Units in II Corps, the reaction turned allergic to our own troops.

The II Corps Commander was shown the door for his actions, when he really had no alternative to what he was doing. He just protected his formation by moving Units around, not to let the Pakistanis know where his Divisions were going to cross. Given the frontage that the Strike Corps had, it couldn’t be more than a frontage of 40-60 Km and there could have been a devastating block by some quickly responsive Pakistani Brigade across the already heavily defended IB.

A government that is so removed from the repercussions of its actions, that its military was made to back down miserably under political pressure from the United States and its Afghanistan agenda has made the entire Indian Armed Forces look up and take notice. The issue within the Armed Forces was so strong that the COAS had to publicly state that the ‘morale of the Army is my problem.’ Isn’t it sad that the Chief had to make a statement like that to begin with? That too, to answer a question of the morale of an army whose readiness, courage, valour and dedication to duty, till yesterday was beyond question.

The Future

The empty space in the Pakistani Strike formations should have signaled something to the Army, who went blindfolded into thinking that their moment of glory had arrived. Adequate intelligence gathering, or dissemination of the same, was not done in the matter by either the Army’s Intelligence Corps or by the team that briefs the PM. It could be worse, if all this has knowingly transpired, and someone in the leadership stymied the repercussions of the non-movement of two enemy Infantry Divisions and its possible meanings.

A government that so quickly catapulted to the US pressure, in removing its Strike Force Commander, at a time when war was seemingly so evident, makes one wonder, if they ever had it in them to lead our country to war. And if they did, when and how they would turn tail during the conflict, faced with a certain nuclear war scenario.

All this smoke screen put out in the media towards ‘short term hostilities’ involving Special Forces here and there, makes one wonder if the leadership would already have thought of buckling under pressure by day 7/9 of war given that some US intelligence report would have conveniently come through showing the F-16s being readied somewhere in the Chagai Hills.

The intent of this article is to highlight a political leadership that does not know how to use its Armed Forces, as all they would have had to do was move some Brigades around the border to get the world attention, rather than dragging our soldiers from leaves and courses only to leave them spending months with their hearts pumping, only to go home.

Think into the future

A government that has backed down on being shown a few pictures of a movement that was essential to its very survival and success of those Units, cannot lead you to war.

And if your Parliament House was attacked and you don’t do anything, then I am sure that there cannot be a stronger reason to attack.

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