The Deccan Traps- a Volcanic Province

With the monsoons about gone and spectacular drives available for people to do, I am posting a few things of interest and when we pass the 200Km from Pune to Kolhapur, we wonder what all those horizontal lines on the hills are.

I did some research and asked a few questions and came up with this.

Deccan Traps, India- 

Seen on the eastern side of the Pune-Kolhapur Highway.

Each layer is formed by one 'pour' of molten basalt, each pour being enough to cover half a million square kilometers. See region in grey marked below ranging from Tapi river to Dharwad in the south. Such pours happened about 60-65 million years ago, and the staart-finish was in less than 10,000 years.

See images below.

17-24N, 43-47E
Elevation: 4,000 feet (1,200 m)

The Deccan Traps are one of the largest volcanic provinces in the world. It consists of more than 6,500 feet (>2,000 m) of flat-lying basalt lava flows and covers an area of nearly 200,000 square miles (500,000 square km) (roughly the size of the states of Washington and Oregon combined) in west-central India. Estimates of the original area covered by the lava flows are as high as 600,000 square miles (1.5 million square km). The volume of basalt is estimated to be 12,275 cubic miles (512,000 cubic km)(the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens produced 1 cubic km of volcanic material). The Deccan Traps are flood basalts similar to the Columbia River basalts of the northwestern United States. This photo shows a thick stack of basalt lava flows north of Mahabaleshwar. Photograph by Lazlo Keszthelyi, January 28, 1996.

The Deccan basalts may have played a role in the extinction of the dinosaurs. Most of the basalt was erupted between 65 and 60 million years ago. Gases released by the eruption may have changed the global climate and lead to the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. This photo shows the Deccan Tarps between Mambai and Mahabaleshwar. Photograph by Lazlo Keszthelyi, January 27, 1996.

Vocanologists are also trying to understand how such great volumes of lava are erupted. Early models proposed that lava flooded across large areas at extremely rapid rates. Recently proposed models suggested that at least some of the flows are emplaced at gradual rates, lasting months to years. This photo shows the Ajanta Caves, temples carved into the basalts. Note the school group for scale. Photograph by Lazlo Keszthelyi, January 31, 1996.

Why is the incident of the creation of the Deccan Traps important?

Huge volcanic eruptions that belched sulfur into the air for around 10,000 years could have killed the dinosaurs, according to new evidence unearthed by geologists.

Evidence is accumulating that it wasn’t an asteroid that did the beasts in, but volcanoes — the first real challenge the extinction theory has met in three decades.

A combination of studies on dinosaur fossils, magnetic signatures in rocks and the timing of the disappearance of different species suggest it was volcanoes, not an asteroid, that caused the dinosaurs’ extinction.

"We’re discovering … amazingly large flows, amazingly short time scales and amazing volcanic (eruptions)," said Vincent Courtillot of the University of Paris, who is is presenting new evidence for the volcano theory this week at the American Geophysical Union conference here.

For the last 30 years, the prevailing theory has been that an asteroid, around six miles across, hit the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago, throwing debris into the atmosphere, blocking the sun and chilling the planet to the point that nearly half of all species went extinct.

Physicist Luis Alvarez of the University of California, Berkeley, first presented the asteroid impact hypothesis in 1980. It was based on an extensive layer of iridium, which is associated with impacts, that could be found in many places across the globe in the same geologic time sequence. A decade later, the Chicxulub crater was discovered on the Yucatan peninsula, adding weight to the idea that an impact killed off the dinosaurs.

The idea that Indian volcanoes, known as the Deccan Traps, might have contributed to the mass extinction is not new. But scientists at the AGU meeting think the eruptions could be the sole cause of the die-offs, and that the asteroid had little or no effect on life at all.

"If there had been no impact, we think there would have been a massive extinction anyway," Courtillot said.

Courtillot has studied the magnetic signatures of the Indian volcanic deposits that lined up with the Earth’s magnetic field as they cooled. Because the orientation of the magnetic field has changed over time, lava that cooled at different times have different signatures.

The more than 2-mile thick pile of Deccan Traps deposits has several major pulses that occurred over the course of several decades each, almost certainly less than 100 years. And the entire sequence erupted in less than 10,000 years, rather than the million years or more that has been suggested.

All told, this would have put 10 times more climate-changing emissions into the atmosphere than the asteroid impact.

Also supporting the volcanic theory is fossil evidence from Texas and Mexico that most of the species extinctions coincided with the final pulse of eruptions, not with the asteroid impact, which may have occurred approximately 300,000 years earlier, according to Gerta Keller of Princeton University.

"There is essentially no extinction associated with the impact," Keller said.

Evidence that dinosaurs survived in India right up to the final volcanic onslaught further bolsters the case.

But it will take a lot of evidence to convince the bulk of the scientific community that the asteroid theory is wrong.

"There was volcanism at the time. There’s always volcanism, but that impact is so significant that you can’t ignore it," said Rick Firestone of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory who studies the link between impacts and extinctions. "The only question is, were there other things that happened as result of it."

Mumbai 2011- A different point of view

We did a heritage walk around Hutatma Chowk and the Taj and took a few pictures.

We went for a heritage walk, early on a sunday morning- and we saw the many faces that make my city the city that it is... where the hardworking barbers were toiling at 0630, the hardest working sleep the sleep of the honest at 0900, where we rebuild and come stronger after terrorists visit, where foreign and Indian companies vie to maintain our heritage buildings, while some of us keep our gardens clean while others let structures collapse, signboards serving tourists our 'desi cool drink' and where shamelessly government-owned companies take credit for supplying free gas to a light up a national monument.

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10150224640793886.336788.574983885&l=0320d926fb

--
Texas A&M, Class of '94

"For all your days prepare,
And meet them ever alike:
When you are the anvil, bear-
When you are the hammer, Strike."
Preparedness, an Epigram by Edwin Markham (1852-1940)

Length of trousers

Such basics are a must-to-know these days. The 'full break' is a requirement for both ladies as well as gents trousers.

I am just hoping that all of you will try and get to the proper length, its just so nice.

For those needing a faster fix, see images below.

Captions, from upper left, clockwise:

Sleeve Length-The sleeve length in the illustration looks spot on to me
No Break- poor form
Full Break- required
Regular Break- in the minimum this much IS required.

Pant bottoms should cover the shoe so that you socks do not show when you walk. The trousers should slant about 1/4" towards the read to touch the top of the sole.

If you don't cuff your pants have the tailor slant the bottoms so that the hem is lower at the back to the top of the shoe heel. Tailors call this a "fishtail".

Visit a good trouser company website like http://www.zanella.com/ and see what you like

AND finally:

Change your tailor if he doesn't listen.

KD

--
Texas A&M, Class of '94

"For all your days prepare,
And meet them ever alike:
When you are the anvil, bear-
When you are the hammer, Strike."
Preparedness, an Epigram by Edwin Markham (1852-1940)

Tales from 2008- No First Use

The background to the article was the insane and incomprehensible statement that the Indian Government has made about 'not being the first to use the nukes.'

This absolutely myopic view that only a puny Pakistan can be our enemy is so pathetic.

I wrote a fictional episode of something that could cause a conflagration with China, the intent being to write some fiction and question the very basis of the above statement the Govt of India has made.

Read on.

Not For Use

Over the past year, Pakistan stole the public march over India in declaring their Nuclear Forces Command and Control System. With Indias’ stated ‘No First Use’ policy, what is going to happen? What command and strategy would you require if your intent is to retaliate? All you need is ten ready nuclear devices and the means to deliver them. If One falls then Ten go. Why the need for such elaborate ‘Strategic Forces Command’?

The establishment of the SFC, has brought out a slew of Indian Arms or Defence experts coming into the open stating that our ‘No First Use’ policy was flawed. Sadly, these people were not taken into confidence before the stratagems of the SFC were established and published for all sundry to read. However, there is truth in their argument, and that our ‘Use’ policy is in a manner, dictated by the enemy.

India, The State of the Nation, circa 2005

India’s new Prime Minister has taken charge after the November 2004 elections. He rides a wave of majority that granted by the electorate on his simple tough language and a no-nonsense approach. The promise of action and low-tolerance appealed to the common man and got SK Bhatnagar elected with a better than 50% margin.

Relative peace exists with the Pakistanis. The disgruntled acceptance of the stalemate over J&K, and their ever-dwindling economy keeps India playing the game, as it hurts them ten times more than it hurts us. In the North East, unsettled ULFA demands, the Kamtipura Movement and other Maoist groups out of Nepal keep formenting trouble in the North-East.

Together, the Pakistanis and the Chinese keep the Indian Army occupied in CI Ops and Indian Army’s Senior Command keeps worrying about the ever-decreasing effort toward war training.

Threat to war is low. Only one Indian Officer in the entire Armed Forces, worries and wonders ‘How many Indians would have to die so as to enable him to defend his nation.’ Lt. Gen. VDS Oberai PVSM, General Officer Commanding, Strategic Forces Command.

As well outlined by Chengappa in his book (Weapons of Peace, Author: Raj Chengappa, Pub. Harper-Collins, 2000) the usage of the atomic devices was completely covered by the scientific establishment. The machinery to fabricate and assemble the weapons, the safeguards, and the testing of the safety mechanisms were all overseen by them. Even the trials using Mirage 2000s was done under their auspicies.

One would safely presume that these scientists are in charge of the weapons and only the Armed Forces to stop or abet them. The poor politicians showed their courage in hostilities to cross International Borders or even the fluctuating Line of Control. There would be every reason to believe that we could strangely have a credible response from a team of men who could be beyond the normal lines of communication during war. This simple fact would allow them that one day to think over a response and deliver it, rather than buckling to some external pressure.

0840Hrs, GMT, Friday 04March 2005, BMEWS Centre, Thule AB, Greenland

The BMEWS ‘MIDAS Early Bird’ in Low-Earth orbit over the Indian Ocean picked up a flare and sent the coordinates 26⁰38'N 93⁰44'E, to the nearest switching station of the US BMEWS 21st Space Wing (SW) at Thule AB, Greenland. The Routers processed the coordinates and flashed a 'Possible Missile Launch' Numaligarh, Eastern India, to the office of the 11 Space Warning Squadron (SWS), Schriever AFB, Colorado under the 21st Space Wing at Peterson AFB, Colorado, and an alert to the NORAD Centre, Cheyenne Mountain.

In the following 35 seconds, a pop-up window on the Console of the Duty Officer, 11 SWS showed cause for alarm. The window read:

‘Missile Launch Warning from close proximity to Indian 555 Missile Group, Dimapur-Tezpur Valley Assam, Eastern India. Armament: Agni-III, Capability: 50kt Atomic Device delivery range 1000 Miles. Action: Alert CENTCOM, Tampa, Florida, and Flash ‘Possible Ballistic Missile Launch Warning: Launch Area: Eastern India, Target: Unknown’ to CENTCOM Detachment, Doha.’

Major James Eggers, muttered to himself, ‘Who is India nuking now?’ in surprise.

1410Hrs, IST, Numaligarh Oil Refinery, Assam, Friday 04 March 2005

A massive detonation had just rocked the oil refinery in Numaligarh, Assam. Storage Tank 17A blew up, containing about 980KL aviation fuel.

Alarm sensors pointed out to the tank that was being drained for inspection and maintenance. That was to be the main problem. Any fuller it would have crossed the detonation limit of 15% and probably a deflagration would have ensued.

The blast overpressure wave that emanated buckled in the shining circular walls containing fuel from surrounding tanks. Mr. Prasun Sen Sharma, the GM of the plant shook his head in amazement as the flash of the fireball crossed his room and had just about enough time to look outside his ‘grand view window’ overlooking almost the entire refinery before the shockwave shattered his window.

‘Hell!’ The only thought that crossed his mind before his body was lifted and flung across the room.

Decapitation of the fire fighting systems and sympathetic detonations would soon raze the dead Mr. Sharmas’ refinery to smouldering debris.

Little was he to know, that this hell would pale in front of what the world would witness before the fortnight was out.

1423Hrs, Indian National Defence Authority Situation Room

Alarm bells rang in the NDASR, somewhere in the foothills of the Himalyas near the Jim Corbett Tiger Sanctuary. Brigadier Ashok Verma, SM, UYSM, was on duty that fateful hour, when the first news of the blast came through.

The dual-role, recently re-named ‘Kalpana,’ military-weather satellite signaled the same IR warning to Vermas’ Monitoring rooms. Fearing the worst, he sent a ‘Eyes Only’ signal to the Office of the Eastern Army Commander (EAC), Lt Gen AK Kulkarni, PVSM, about a possible catastrophic event, and asked him make preparations to get to his to get to his Command Center, while the situation was being evaluated.

News channels covering the blast at 1545Hrs reported spreading of fires and a possible destruction of the entire refinery. Verma watching the situation unfold from the TVs and his hotline called the NDA Crisis Team who in turn alerted the Defence Chiefs, the CCS, the Secretary of MoH, and the Secretary of the MEA.

While the RAW and the Intelligence Bureau Directors were alerted, almost immediately the entire security structure got off its inertia and some concrete report of the blast being sanctioned by the ULFA was received. Even before the NDA and CCS meeting was scheduled, the Army Chief ordered his Staff Officers to issue a general alert to the Eastern Command, and placed the Siliguri-based XXVII Corps on a ‘Formal Alert’

Col. N Ramakishnan, CO 7/13GR, ’The Primes,’ the batallion with the duty of the Div Alert Bn was on the phone with his Brigade Commander, 31(I) Infantry Brigade, and GOC, 195 Mountain Div under the XXVII Corps, and ordered his troops ‘Mobilisation’ status.

No First Use, that itself is the primary flaw in the system we have cared to show the world. Maybe it is just a reflection of the government not being able to get enough guidance or be able to bring itself to think of a nuclear assault on a neighbour.

The stated decision to use the nuclear weaponry ‘Second’ is so Pakistan-centric, that it has clearly ignored a possibility of use on China. Have the mandarins of the Defence Ministry and the Ministry of External Affairs negated China forever from our nations Defence equations?

1635Hrs, Same Day

Local Assam Police, and IB reports of movements of suspected ULFA militants had started from western Bhutan, mainly from the scenic valley in which surrounded the town of Paro. The route being taken was westward toward the China border. Physical terrain and current deployment status meant that there was precious little to do before they reached the Chinese border. The IAF was alerted and MiGs from the Tezpur AFB were readied to attack the feeling columns of militants. Additional airforce at Kalaikunda (KKD), Dimapur, Siliguri, amongst other bases, were alerted. IMTRAT Commander, Thimpu, was asked to place his troops on an awareness level, and HQ 31(I) Infantry Brigade, outside of Gangtok, was placed on full alert.

Dusk, 1735Hrs, Same Day

The lead MiG 21 from 212 Squadron ‘The Proud Claws,’ Tezpur, struck a convoy 13 Km short of the Chinese border, due North west of Paro. BDA estimated about ten trucks damaged, just as darkness enveloped eastern India.

How can one presume this while making statements about the use of one of our ‘arms.’ If there is any hostility with the Chinese, then the Chinese stand to do all the damage they want to, given our inaccessible border region in the NE. The ill-developed border road setup, and the lack of infrastructure, leaves one staring at another land-grab in the face.

Any number of presumptions are available to us. Suppose the simplest of border skirmishes escalates or that an incident beyond current threat perception occurs, and there is a war. So, if we stand to loose Ladakh and/or Arunachal, or a decimation of the Corps that sits in the West Bengal/Assam nook, then we will not use the weapon as the Pakistanis would if the North-South corridors along the Indus were threatened?

Dusk to Dawn, 04-05 Saturday, March 2005

Chaos reigned over the refinery, and aerial assessment with the help of Jaguar and MiG 25 recce flights showed extensive fires all over the refinery complex and to the money counters, it already meant a loss of over Rs. 5000 Crores, in infrastructure and revenue, not to mention the importing of oil products to cover the shortage.

The Crisis Team of the NDA and CCS met around 0115Hrs. The PM’s influence on the gathering was that there was to be a reaction for sure. With precious little to go on, the PM asked the IAF Chief, Air Chief Marshal ABV Palkhivala to continue on the available information about the fleeing militants, and the strike by the MiG 21 the earlier evening. He left it to the Armed Forces Chiefs to give him the plan just before the full NDA and CCS meet later that day.

It was decided that Palkhivala was to task the Squadrons at KKD to be ready for action at first light.

The Prime Minister’s Office convened the meeting of the NDA and the CCS at just a little past 0400Hrs, so that they would have some face saving to do when the nation would awake to reports of the carnage in Assam. They were informed about the knowledge of the fleeing militants and their crossing over into the Chinese territory from Bhutan. Reports from Tibetan informers indicated a larger horde of militants having passed Yadong, about to cross over the Sikkim border, probably enroute to safer havens in Nepal.

The quantum of movement indicated a ever large conspiracy and a very well thought of plan, that the movement was to safeguard the higher echelons of the terrorists while the lower rungs took the brunt of the combing Ops that the Indian forces would predictably carry out in the following weeks.

On being given to realise the possible escape of the leaders of the groups, all that the PM said was “Stupid people.”

Sunrise, 0510Hrs, 05 March 2005

A Single MiG 25R took off from KKD, with its twin afterburning Tumansky R-15s, no weapons payload, save the seven cameras with their film cassettes onboard. Wing Commander Srivastava leveled of at over 82,000 ft. At that altitude, escorts wouldn’t have been able to keep up, nor stay with him for the duration of his flight. His flight path took him over Paro and leveled off about where the IB between Bhutan and China stood. Chinese AD radars picked him up while he was still climbing, but did nothing, as they knew that they didn’t have anything with which they could even think of harming him in that time frame.

His cameras piercing the early morning mists, captured over 175 Sq.Km at the enhanced zoom and focus with a click. His return leg turned him back to KKD over the Primes running around their hurried defences. At that height, they didn’t even know if he was there.

Photo Recce Assessment Teams took just under 26 minutes to pinpoint the militants’ tents, and haphazard arrangements about 3Km into Chinese territory to stay clear of the Chinese Army Camp about 15Km further, at Pagri. They had just past the shiny tin-roof of the PLA Border Guards post, bang on the border.

Smoke wisps and a charred border outpost a few hundred yards east of the Chinese post was all that remained of the 3^rd Platoon, Bravo Company, 28 Raj Rif.

Results were being flashed to the NDA while the same were being dialed into the Briefing Room of the MiG 27s of 352Wing at KKD.

0630Hrs, Sikkim-China Border

As luck would have it the ‘Primes’ were in the area from where any possible crossing could take place between Yadong and Sikkim into Nepal.

The ‘Primes’ having moved through the evening and night, were on station at the border and were spreading out across the only passable route into Sikkim. They flashed a ‘K minus 1’ to HQ 195 Mtn Div just as the MiG flew over them at over Mach3.

0650Hrs, KKD Airforce Station

The lead aircraft, a MiG 27ML, with Squadron Leader SP ‘Spidey’ Bharadwaj, was already rolling off its blocks while the MiG 29S pilots in escort rolled out of their hangars. Everyone was sweating in their flight suits, the cool morning air nor the pressurised cockpits made any difference. Flight suits were damp with perspiration, heartbeats were doing the aerobic routine and the bitter taste of acid reflux due to fear-anxiety complex, flooded the mouths of the 6 ‘27 and 4 ’29 pilots.

Haven’t you made a public statement about your nuclear weapons use? Would that be a nice time to retract the policy and retrain the SFC for a first-use scenario? And then begin a brain-storming over what Chinese target would get them to stop? And the whole thought process of how to carry out the whole exchange and second-strike capability.

For a leadership without a backbone, the NFU is the safest way out. With Pakistan, we will use second because we don’t know when to use it first. With China, if we use one, (to paraphrase our Defence Minister, “there will be no India left.”)

0655Hrs, New Delhi

The India Minister for External Affairs, KN Sharma, was on the phone with his Chinese counterpart, explaining the militant attack on the refinery and the escaping militants hiding on Chinese soil.

Explaining his urgency and desperation in the matter, the Minister explained that he had a situation and there had to be some results to show to the Indian population.

The Chinese Minister was asking for proof that the militants in Chinese territory were the ones that perpetrated the attack on the Refinery. Knowing fully well, that they couldn’t have been the same people, simply because of the distance, Sharma replied, “No, Sir they are not, but they all belong to the same team, and I need some cooperation, at this hour.”

“I will get back to you within the hour,” was the reply before the phone went dead.

‘Romeo Team’ cleared the airbase perimeter even before the conversation ended.

0700Hrs, New Delhi

Air Chief Marshal ABV Palkhivala waited with bated breath, his pilots were going to be in action over enemy territory for the first time, literally for the first time since, he as a Wing Commander with 7 Squadron, had flown his Mirage 2000 over Male as escort for the Il 76s in the ‘80’s.

Brig. Verma informed Palkhivala “Flight Control/ ATC, KKD via the NDASR.” The speakers crackled to life with the voice of the FC/ATC, KKD relaying flight details. The august gathering in New Delhi sat back, stunned, before the shock and fear set in and wondered if their debate for over three and a half hours had any meaning.

“Yeh kya majaak hai?” someone muttered.

“Chup kar.” The PMs voice rasped.

Silence was worse than blood, sweat, or tears, thought Palkhivala as he and Oberoi crossed eyes for a fleeting second. They knew each other long enough from their NCC days at FergussonCollege, to understand what had just transpired.

The Prime Minister spoke, weighing each word carefully.

“When is that damn fire going to get put out?”

“Kulkarni, Where is 555? Ensure their safety.”

“How many troops died in the militant crossing? Their deaths will be avenged first. Destroy them.”

Not expecting an answer to the first two and referring to the surprise attack on the rear of the HQ Bravo Company, 28 Raj Rif by the fleeing militants, the PM stood by the orders given to the Air Chief, and waited to hear of the attack before getting ready to speak to the Chinese Premier.

“Call the Resort and wake up the President, Please.”

Order or request ?… the PM’s Private Secretary wondered as he just nodded at the Signals Officer, a full Colonel, manning the Secure Government Hotline to connect to the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

For those who to study nuclear exchange scenarios, you are facing a situation that could snowball into one.

In all probability, give the current thought process and mindset, the SFC will have all the force it can ever deploy, with a lop-sided command structure to enforce a missing strategy.

Our nation has been versatile in facing adversaries, every time after our adversaries have turned hostile, and the common man should literally gun for a change in this mentality.

0727Hrs, Bhutan-China Border

Spidey and his flight flew about 100 ft over the burning remains of the Raj Rif camp, much to the surprise of the troops who were engaged in Medevac Ops there. The roar of the ten aircraft, flying nape of the earth to avoid early detection from enemy AD radar, was almost like a soothing balm to the wounds of the soldiers and a helping hand heaven-ward to the dead.

The militants were hit with a complete surprise, and having no AD weapons to fight back, could do little other than run a few steps before being blown to bits. Men, women, their ammunition, belongings, and vehicles were destroyed by the two waves of ‘27s. Having expended their deadly cargo of bombs, they turned around to get a few pictures for the BDA gang on Base. Sqn Ldr ‘Dicky’ Dixit of the escorting ‘29s, and his flight immediately flew near vertical and stationed themselves at 31,000ft. to cover the retreating bombers.

Col Sethi, CO 28 Raj Rif, saw the smoke and the high flying MiGs and thanked God for someone who had the courage to fight back from the offices higher than his.

0758Hrs, 256 Signal Company, HQ XXVII Corps, Siliguri

“You stabbed us, you promised us the Indians wouldn’t attack us on your soil, all our women are dead, because of you.

The Communists in Nepal will protect us far better than you or your masters in Beijing ever could.

Hopefully you shall not let my men crossing past Yadong suffer the same fate. Protect them till they pass…”

The OIC, Major K Sawant, of 256 Signal Company, Signals Detachment, HQ XXVII Corps, stared at his AlcatelKQ-R32AB scanner, and blandly instructed his junior to make copies for encryption.

He picked up the phone to call the Col. Singhal, Staff Officer, Operations, XXVII Corps.

The Crisis had just begun.

We are not a progressing nation just to be able to be large enough to absorb an attack on our seat of government, or that continuing infiltration and terrorism be handled in the manner it is being done today, because we are not paying a heavy price mentally, physically or economically.

*****
From the author:

There was a small point of conflict between the appraisers of this writeup that the layouts of refinery storage tank farms would not permit such a starting scenario. However, please understand that there is the principle of FAE’s taken into account here.

Storage tanks at refineries are sometimes over 40-50Lakh litres in capacity. The key here is that it was written that the tank was between the 6-15% capacity, resulting in a ‘detonation’ versus the ‘deflagration’ that would happen if a fuller tank was ‘hit.’

A detonation of this magnitude, would cause a supersonic overpressure wave that could carry far enough to encompass the area of the refinery, at worst and at best the surrounding storage tanks. The debris of the metal of the tank walls would carry further than the overpressure wave at the least.

This is the theory on which the attack on the refinery is based. You wouldn’t presume that we would put the actual figures in public, would you?

The effect and the following damage appreciation is correct, and this is not an attack on either full, half-full or empty fuel tanks in some other nation. This is a calculated attack.

And we think that those who concentrated on the nitty-gritty of the attack forgot that if China attacked, would we risk losing the north east or would we use the nukes?

Intelligence is everyones’ birthright.

**************

Tales from 2007- Let Kashmir Burn

Four years ago I wrote this, to keep some close friends amused. Its no long amusing that 4 years and nothing seems different.

Let Kashmir Burn

Apropos to our earlier articles trying to get people to become proactive over the Kashmir

issue, we now try and analyse the media portrayed picture of this 'despondancy' that we

are reeling under.

The media finally shows what the Government wants it to show. They have access to

Srinagar and other cities to film whatever and interview whoever they want. Beyond the

tar roads where the villages lie, where the militants lurk, there is only the army and the

paramilitary forces without as much as an agenda with them.

Certain villages are demarcated as 'Out of Bounds' for our own military. This is either

due to the connivance of our political alliances or due to the very fact that there is now a

tacit understanding between the military and the Afghanis on areas of truce. Strange as it

may sound such pockets of peace do exist, and no one complains.

There are problems for everyone, India, Pakistan and the powers within that will unearth

a proverbial 'can of worms' if the matter in J&K can be resolved, if all it can be. Pakistan

needs the J&K issue to keep its population engrossed in something other than the bad

state of affairs its economy and politics. The Pakistani Army is better at governing its

own country than managing affairs of defence and is back at its hobby of ruling the

country again. A return to democracy can be followed up only by a population that

decides to get out of the morass they are in right now, but they will realise that only if

they are given time to reflect away from India, so well portrayed as the aggressor there.

The Indian Government has to day a phenomenal number of troops there. The Army

strength is probably over five Corps strong. With the creation of the third Corps, there

are about 20+ Batallions of Rashtriya Rifles, and innumerable other Batallions drawn up

from the lower states under the guise of Internal Security.

For the past ten years, the Indian Army has learnt to function with about 2,50,000 plus

of its troops involved in Kashmir living in an almost war like scenario. If this problem

were to get over and Pakistan were to become a friendly nation, the Top Brass of

the nation would have a very real and present danger of keeping these many troops

pleasantly occupied. The Paramilitary forces number three times as much as the Army,

on conservative estimates, BSF, TA, CRPF, ITBP, CISF and innumerable other units

from other organizations are in excess of 7,50,000.

The property taken over from fleeing Brahmins, apple orchards, etc., wouldn't it be hell

if you had to sit down at the end of it all and have to return it to rightful owners? What

would you do with self-styled Commanders of factions of the J&K Liberation armies/

factions? Where would you find gainful employment for Kashmiri youth who have lived

off Indian Government dole money ever since they were born? Who would account for

all the subsidies that have lined private coffers from the thousands of crores that have

disappeared from the subsidies that J&K gets?

We could let the damn state starve for all the trouble the people there give us. Let

them buy rice that the rest of the nation does. Let them work for a living. Give them

employment building a canal connecting the Ganges to the Cauvery, or whatever,

let them earn a living instead of buying rice at Rs. 2 a Kg. and then feeding terrorists

at night, amongst other things. Albeit at gunpoint. A spineless population we do not

need. The rot of our system is evident in the psyche of the average Kashmiri. They

want freedom, or Pakistan, but they say that their Apples will be sold in the markets of

Bombay. They know the merchants of Lahore will plunder them in broad daylight, and

they will not be able to do a thing about it. The people want cake and to eat it too.

Given our strengths, don't you find it strange to see a problem continuing for over ten

years and only getting worse? The Punjab militancy needed a 'Super Cop' to end things

ruthlessly. There too there was backing from across the border. How did it end then?

Public support helped the Government use force and finish the matter. What is up in

Kashmir then? We have 25% of our army, and about three times as many paramilitary

forces there. We have the strength, but apparently someone has calculated that there is no

urgency in ending the problem anytime soon.

The 10,00,000 strong army has learnt to deal with approximately a 1,000 dead a year with

a blink. No one cares about the paramilitary forces. We are sure that the Forum-ites here

would be hard pressed to find accurate figures of paramilitary losses over the past ten

years. Why? No one in the powers-that-be really seem to care about ending the situation

in J&K. Monetarily, has there been a significant change in our defence budget due to

the insurgency? Nothing that the DM has complained about to date. Just the demands

for more money to upgrade weaponry when Pakistan is not even getting spares for the

weapons they have. The nation has learnt to deal with the situation and the press playing

the role of pacifier, has made sure that the population of India becomes immune to any

newer levels of atrocities committed there.

What to do with an Army that is occupied with sharpening its nails and nothing to kill,

someday that is going to get us. There are already incidents of Officers being shot dead

by their own troops, so much so that the Units are happy with field postings as holidays

are guaranteed there, as opposed to peace postings where the shortage of men takes up

more than half your annual leave. This is apparently OK with the planners of the Army.

So, we firstly do nothing long term about stating a solution to a problem. Deal with that

cancer like it was the flu. The we play around with the manpower and create problems

that will surface over the next decade, but the Generals of today would be retired by then

to write about how wrong things are and pass expert judgement during Kargil-like crises.

Money is not a problem, manpower is not either. What to do later is. So ladies and

gentlemen of the Forum, people who disagreed with our earlier article, will definitely

find that this line of reasoning to their liking. The few who understood have refrained

from comment, and the ones who commented on the 'ownership' of the Forex missed the

point. So maybe they agree here, that there is nothing we can do.

Let Kashmir burn.

Indian Foreign Policy- Comments from early 2010.

Indian Foreign Policy Track -2010

The time has come for India to make a stand on the international stage and redeem itself for the absolutely novice-like muscle entry into Sri Lanka under the guise of the IPKF and the subsequent shameful withdrawal without having achieved a thing, other than bloody-ing over 70,000 troops in combat.

Loosing a Prime Minister to the same hordes, in a suicide attack that the entire Southern Indian Politician cadre was aware of – was in my opinion the nadir of our foray into extending ‘India’ into the South East.

The nation has another chance of redeeming itself once again and this time as well, with one of our own neighbours. However, unlike the presumed ‘dimunitive’ Lankans, this one is in Pakistan.

The blackmail game that the Pakistanis are playing with the US needs to end, and that nation brought down to its knees or better still a creation of independent states, much as the CIA and the ISI would have liked to see happen to India by 2020. The extreme beggar-like and prostrate behavior put up by the Pakistanis using their own cache of nuclear weapons and their own commanded Taliban- to extort money from the only country in the world that does not want to call their bluff, the United States- is so shameless that it really needs a bullet to the back of the head of that nation. Diversion of those US funds to support terror against/within J&K bothers us less, than the blatant game of chicken that they play- and what possibly irritates more is the fact that they are getting away with it.

Not to sound deliberate or insensitive, if our Nation did not punish the perpetrators of the Parliament attack, you thought we would attack Pakistan for harbouring and encouraging the masterminds and doers of the Mumbai 26/11? You surely must be joking. When the seat of power in this country was attacked, we rolled out the Army and recalled every course-going Young Officer, and disrupting holidays, wedding, honeymoons, bank loans- what did we achieve? A well meaning Corps Commander was sacked on the behest of the United States, who kept guaranteeing the Pakistanis that India would not attack them, and enable them to move two Divisions to the battle that the US was trying to contain in the West. Nice. After grinding the entire machinery of our armed forces for nine months, we were back to status quo- and this time around, I don’t think the ASC even flinched when the Mumbai Hotels and a Synagogue were turned into an abattoir. I am sure not one uniformed Officer thought that there was going to be any kind of retribution towards Pakistan for the carnage that happened.

Can you see how we have raped the ego and morale of our own? When Army officers sit back and laugh at the apathy of our Government, the lack of guts, the lack of decision, the lack of knowledge of the options that lie ahead of us… God forbid that there is a war with Officers like this believing in the countrys’ leadership.

Many a time some readers pre-empted the point of the article by chasing the lead, and rushing top praise our brave officers and men, and think that I belittle them- that is not the case. Battles are indeed won by individual and group shows of resistance, attack, defying death, and in unfortunate cases- delaying death to the point where victory came to us before the chariots of doom. Wars- are not won like this. Wars are won by Government giving directions to the Armed Forces leadership. Choices of how the war should end- Strike Corps aligned to the IB- such a waste, when you know that if Pakistan survives as an entity, we will have to taste the waters of the Indus and return with probably about 8000 causalties to show.

I am sure given the pathetic response to the Parliament attack, if there was a war, we are neither prepared for the our Strike Corps reaching the Indus, nor are we tactically thought out if a nuclear weapon of piddling magnitude be dropped on its advancing coloumns- or worse- if the garrisons at Sukkur and Rahimyar Khan make a corridor for the Strike Corps to move to the Indus, nuke the rear and entrap the entire Strike Corps and its entire support mechanism, you would have about 30,000 troops- within Pakistan. The bumbling fools who lead our country, and their sheer lack of depth of listing options are going to fail us again.

It is time to move to diplomacy and assault Pakistan in its very heart, and heartlands. The unending bluff of its nuclear weapons and the threat of the Taliban getting to them should be called on and its time that the United States realizes that its continual funding of the Paksitani state is only going to be prolonged by the wonderful act that the ISI and its entire puppet-political nexus is staging for them.

I tell our leaders, forget 26/11- we have not done a thing about it, and you as a collective soul are incapable of action- so just forget the assault on Mumbai, stop making it your war cry, as there is nothing more pathetic than a drooling nation crying over spilt milk, rather we look like the ‘rudaali’ who come to exhibit their professional talents at wailing at any funeral, any death that pays them to cry their heart out without even knowing if it was the worst village rapist who died at a victims sickle.

Reduce the LoC strength, to show solidarity with the ‘battle they are having to prevent the spread of the Taliban.’ Its probably the US that has ensured them, as they always do, that we will not take undue advantage of the reduction of troop strength- if the fools know that reduction of troop strengths along the IB is a meaningless expression of worry. The Pakistani Rangers man the IB, and they as a nation are free to move two Brigades around without the fear of loosing an square inch of territory. Indian leadership does not have it in them to launch a war, and therefore the US should just call in the Pakistani leadership to remove all their forces from along the IB and deploy them in the west and crush the Taliban, recover the Swat Valley and reinforce their command over the NWFP. But, my friends, in this giant charade, this will not happen. The US wouldn’t want India to get too strong would it?

India should now start asking for opening up four more axis’ of trade into Pakistan, and not just keep it to the song and dance that such openings get in J&K. Barmer- Mirpur Khas, Jaisalmer- Rahimyar Khan, Fazila-Okara, Firozpur- Lahore. Abandoned railway stations, silent bearers to the horrific slayings at the time of independence like awaiting in towns like Munnabao and await salvation that they may serve the people of what was once a united nation. Routes abound to open trade and start the business community of Pakistan thinking between the Taliban and India, we present a MUCH better alternative as one would choose a wife with lesser evils to spend ones’ life with.

Openly invite the Pakistani Armed Forces Officers to our Counter Insurgency schools, teach them lessons on use of own Artillery as we did in Op Sarp Vinash, offer to send our Officers as Instructors to their schools. Offer cheap technology to convert their dud 1000-pounder bombs to laser assisted munitions, help them fly their F-16s. Help them combat the Taliban. Its time to think like a Big Brother, and not the Bully-act that we did in the South, 25 years ago.

Opening trade in the middle, offering assistance at the north and their west, leaves them with little option to deride us, and it would reduce the India ‘bogey’ from their consistent public policy. Given our Arms-down and trade-up move, they would have to re-think the bluff on their India-front, and that would enable the US to move and isolate the nuclear weapons that the Pakistanis keep threatening the world- if you don’t keep us up as a nation, the Taliban will get the nukes.

The professional setup that the Pakistani Armed Forces are, I am sure that they have their safety features in place and their fall-back plan will always be that the parts the nukes are disassembled into, will be within hours of PAF bases that house the F-16s and Mirage-IIIs. Army Cantonments and PAF bases that can house/service and sustain these aircraft are not like 27 in number. I am sure that the CIA, the US DOD, and the Indian RAW and the Army’s MI can whittle that number to two airfields in that nation.

Target these two locations. Develop men or women who can take control of the Sind, and the Punjab into independent entities and create a buffer state that would thrive on trade and learn to enjoy the freedom that the Taliban threatens to take away from them. Give them work, give them hope, and give them something to look forward to, maybe just a truck carrying bicycle tyres or tomatoes that grow in abundance in the deserts of Rajasthan- if not the more exotic Basmati rice that we so happily export to any country with Dollars enough to buy them.

The Taliban, not contained, one day will take this farce run by the ISI too far- and eventually the north will collapse. And then the battle will come to our door step. Insurgency in J&K is currently sustained by the ISI, and when their prodigies reach the border themselves, then Kashmir, UP, Bihar, Bangladesh will be the corridor that they will start to carve out for themselves.

Buffer states, sustained by our trade, sustained by our military education, sustained by the taste of money and freedom will only be our help.

Its time to create a Sind, a Punjab and leave them as if they were our extended states. Let them be entities with a life of their own, and let them keep the advancing Taliban at bay.

If we loose this opportunity to intervene and protect ourselves with a ‘Commonwealth of Broken Pakistani States’ then we are faced with the Taliban at our doorstep within the coming 18 months.

And the real fear, is that our old politicians would have just gotten older, and the Armed Forces would still have no clue on what to do with these hordes on the fence.

Individual valour will continue to be expressed, and good men in uniform will continue to die- with Actors, Cricket players and businessmen contesting the current general elections in India, the article is to be read by the men who roam the dark corridors of foreign policy, and its’ upto them to educate, cajole and/or threaten the elected few- to act and lead them and our country to becoming a regional superpower and sustain our nation for atleast the next five decades.

Skoda Fabia Review

This review too was written in May 2010.

After the coming of my Scorpio, I had to sell my Honda 1.5EXI (1998 model, the flat bonnet one), which had done about 80,000Km in its 4 years with me (total 130,000 in 8 years). The height differences of the drivers’ seat started to make it extremely uncomfortable to drive the Honda after getting used to the commanding position of the Scorpio. Uncomfortable highway driving, intersections and near-misses with autorickshaws helped me make up my mind on selling the same. Else, the Honda remains my favourite car for road-holding, reliability and low-maintenance costs.

The Fabia, with its adjustable seat, steering, and robust build took the family’s fancy and it arrived from Autobahn almost as quickly as it was ordered. The 1.4TDi turned in an average of 12.7KmpL on its very first tank of diesel and I wondered ‘Skoda?’

All the way to its service at 10,000Km, the car had settled down between 13.5 in the city and about 14.7-15.2 on highways. I must agree that speeds of 120+ and at times upto its rated 155 were more often seen than not. An amazing drive in Rajasthan- Mumbai-Mt Abu Road- Jodhpur-Jaisalmer- Barmer- Mumbai in the summer of 2008 saw it working without a sweat. A broken AC Condenser refrigerant pipe was attended to at the Skoda dealership in Jodhpur at 6PM- coordinated by Autobahns staff in Mumbai. I remain grateful to the staff to get the AC working else the 45 deg temperatures would have had me broiled. Rs 1200 to get the pipe braised. Gas+labour free.

A blistering drive from Jaisalmer to Tanot, Longewala and back, saw the car do 130+ consistently along the wonderful border roads. Maybe I will go back to see the scenery one of these days :-P

The fuel tank of 55- often saw me do over 600Km of good driving without the pesky stop… and once it felt great to do Mumbai-Goa on a single tank of gas, as opposed to the Kolhapur stop that the Scorpio would demand after doing 400+.

ABS- this works. It has saved my family once.

Roaring across the desert at 140 near Pokhran in Rajasthan, a milk-can carrying Mahindra pick-up pulled on to the road and I was forced to slam the brakes, swerve into the desert and get back onto the road. The ABS allowed me to steer thru the sand and get back onto the road. All this happened in a strange calm and not for a second was there a sense of panic in the vehicle. Like seat-belts, I would say it’s a must. If you can afford it, buy the ABS version of any car that you are looking at.

The rushing sand+shrubs under the car damaged the ‘kaichi’ and this set me back about Rs 29,000 on my return to Mumbai.

The service provided by Autobahn was good, but very annoying that they always were a day late in giving the car back, and their check-out always made it a chore for my driver to wait for a couple of hours to get the car out, even after reaching them on the time they said that the car would be ready.

Tires lasted for the entire duration of the 48,000Km that the car was with me. Rotated every 5000Km, no early wear-tear was noticed.

Wipers, front and rear- excellent wipe.

In Jan 2010, the AC would start-stop intermittently. The problem got worse and a local AC mechanic diagnosed it to the ‘carbon’ on the radiator fan motor, requiring a replacement finally in April. 10500+Labour- AHA! That reminds me, they had a computer breakdown that day, and its been 3-4 weeks since that, I have paid an ad-hoc 12K for the same, and I don’t have a receipt for it. They were to call me back and refund any excess payment… I am just too tired to deal with such a shabby service center.

No suprises, till the time the wife drove- like she did in the earlier Lavasa Rally with the Scorpio, she took the Fabia this time and –WOW- the steady driving, and low upper speeds, the car returned 24 KmpL. I loved the average, but I hate to drive like that. I am at peace with my 13-15 range. The car has potential to perform, to answer my ‘Skoda?’ but its insane to drive that car at 60Kmph on the Mumbai-Pune Expressway.

It felt at home doing 155 from Baroda to Ahmedabad- end to end on the 97Km long tar road… possibly the best single piece of closed road in India.

Worries of replacing all 5 tires (approx 21,000) and maintenance issues that would follow this kind of usage after 50,000 Km made me sell the car- not too soon though. The Radiator fan…

Other than the AC pipe, which was replaced in Mumbai along with the kaichi (not under warranty), nothing else required replacement under the warranty. No bulbs, no fuses, no horn, no nothing.

The solidity of the car, the doors, the hatchback door, the ‘planted’ feel on the highways, has spoilt me for other vehicles.

Possibly the only vehicle reaching its standards is the Polo, of which I await the diesel option- I hear they got the Govt approval for the engine (clearing of BS IV norms?) just last week- and maybe that’s what we will buy. I dread to think that the Fabia is then my only remaining option.

For people who drive gentler/lesser, there are many other cars- i20, Figo, Punto, Beat, Swift… I have nothing against them.

Drive alert and wear your seat-belts.